Welcome to the autumn issue of The World Today. The United States’ retreat from its customary global role continues. Are we bound for great power spheres of influence, multipolar rivalry and collapse? No, writes Amitav Acharya. As the West fades, a new ‘multiplex’ world order is likely to arise, he argues. Nevertheless, writes Neil Shearing, the global economy is fracturing and countries will have to pick sides: the US or China? The COP30 climate summit in Brazil nears, so we sought fresh thinking. Jessica Green argues that global tax policy will be more effective than net zero targets in reducing emissions. Tim Lenton believes the theory of catastrophic climate tipping points in fact shows societies that swift transformation is possible. Chatham House’s David Gunn and Matthew Harris ask where the big ideas are coming from to deal with a post-1.5C world. Anneliese Dodds, who resigned as UK minister for development in February, argues that the decision to slash overseas aid makes little sense in an age of rising geopolitical threats. She names China as one such threat, so I recommend William Matthews’ and Ben Bland’s speculative article in which they cast forward to 2035 to imagine that the South China Sea is under China’s control – a feasible prospect, they write. In the Middle East, Hugo Bachega detects shifts in Israeli popular opinion on the war in Gaza, while Rime Allaf writes that Syrian president Ahmed al-Sharaa’s vision of democracy risks denying the reality of the country’s complex society. Finally, as the United Nations celebrates its 80th anniversary, the grandson of its third secretary-general U Thant tells us what today’s leaders could learn from his powerful legacy. 
All this and much more awaits. We hope you enjoy it. Mike Higgins, editor.